Em 2008 o Marketwatch compilou dez regras que resumem suas conclusões de anos de observação dos mercados. O Barry Ritholtz, do The Big Picture, fez essa versão comentada, que, acho, é a mais difundida hoje em dia (costumo citar algumas delas com frequência). Creio que não há uma versão em Português, então resolvi fazer esse serviço. Para muitos vai soar como mais uma das pajelanças que o pessoal do mercado usa para justificar seus atos quase aleatórios; para quem (como eu) acha que mercados são construções sociais que possuem heurísticas (à la Kahneman e Tversky), nuts & bolts (à la Jon Elster) e fractalidades (à la Mandelbrot), as regras são de grande sabedoria e uma ótima ferramenta para evitar as armadilhas da euforia e depressão. Aí vão, de qualquer maneira:
1. Mercados tendem a voltar à média ao longo do tempo
Quando ações vão muito longe em uma direção, voltam. Euforia e pessimismo podem confundir a cabeça das pessoas. É fácil ser pego no calor do momento e perder a perspectiva.
2. Excessos em uma direção levarão a excessos opostos na outra direção
Pense na base de referência do mercado como se estivesse presa a um elástico. Qualquer ação muito grande em uma direção trará você não apenas de volta à referência, mas levará a um exagero na direção oposta.
3. Não existem novas eras - excessos nunca são permanentes
Qualquer que seja o último setor "quente", acaba esquentando demais, retorna à média e exagera a correção. Veja quão longe foram mercados emergentes e BRICs nos útlimos seis anos (nota: isso foi escrito em agosto de 2008), apenas para serem cortados pela metade.
Na medida que a febre vai sendo construída, um coro de "esta vez é diferente" será ouvido, mesmo que essas palavras exatas não sejam usadas. E é claro que ela - a Natureza Humana - nunca é diferente.
4. Mercados com quedas ou altas exponenciais costumam ir mais longe do que você imagina, mas eles não são corrigidos com movimentos de lado.
Não importa quão "quente" seja um setor, não espere que uma planície corrija os excessos. Lucros são realizados com vendas, e isso invariavelmente leva a uma correção significativa.
5. O público compra mais no topo e menos no fundo
Esse é o motivo pelo qual investidores com mentalidade contrária podem fazer um bom dinheiro se seguirem os indicadores de sentimento e tiverem um bom timing.
6. Medo e cobiça são mais fortes que firmeza de longo prazo
Investidores podem ser seus piores inimigos, particularmente quando a emoção toma conta. Ganhos "nos fazem exuberantes; incrementam o bem estar e promovem otimismo," diz o professor de finanças da Universidade de Santa Clara Meir Statman. Seus estudos de comportamento do investidor mostram que "perdas trazem tristeza, desgosto, medo, arrependimento. O medo aumenta a percepção de risco e alguns reagem se afastando de ações".
7. Mercados são mais fortes quando abrangentes e mais fracos quando limitados a poucas blue chips
Daí amplitude e volume serem tão importantes. Pense nesses indicadores como força em números. Momentum amplo é difícil de ser contido, Farrell observa. Fique atento quando o momentum se limita a um pequeno número de ações.
8. Mercados em queda têm três estágios - queda violenta, recuperação reflexiva e continuidade da tendência fundamental de queda
Eu sugeriria que (em Agosto de 2008) estamos na terceira recuperação reflexiva - os cortes de juros de Janeiro, as mínimas da Bear Stearns em Março, e, agora, os resgates de Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac.
Mesmo com esses ralis esporádicos, ainda veremos a longa etapa de continuidade baseada em fundamentos da queda do mercado.
9. Quando todos os experts e previsões concordam - algo diferente vai acontecer
Como Stovall, o estrategista de investimentos da S&P, coloca: "Se todo mundo está otimista, quem sobrou para comprar? Se todo mundo está pessimista, quem sobrou para vender?"
Ir contra a manada, como Farrell repetidamente sugere, pode ser muito lucrativo, especialmente para compradores pacientes que fazem caixa em mercados eufóricos e reinvestem quando o sentimento é mais obscuro.
10. Mercados em tendência de alta são mais divertidos que mercados em tendência de queda
Especialmente se você tem um mandato para ficar todo tempo investido. Aqueles com planos mais flexíveis podem eventualmente sorrir nas duas situações.
Mais sobre Bob Farrell no Hall of Fame da Institutional Investor.
41 comentários:
Parabéns pela tradução.
Uma justa homenagem ao grande Bob.
Obrigado... Bob é mestre.
Quando todos os experts e previsões concordam - algo diferente vai acontecer
Brilhante, brilhante.
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