Dois papers muito interessantes da última leva do NBER

1. Nathan Nunn, de Harvard, sobre o papel da cultura (definida como o conjunto de heurísticas que ajudam na tomada de decisões - como valores, crenças e normas sociais) no processo de desenvolvimento econômico. A leitura é bem mais simples do que parece pelo título, e o tema é fascinante - e me lembra que ainda preciso terminar um livro do Jon Elster que larguei pelo meio e ler o novo do Acemoglu / Robinson quando sair. Trecho do resumo:

A number of empirical studies confirm that culture is an important mechanism that helps explain why historical shocks can have persistent impacts; these are reviewed here. As an example, I discuss the colonial origins hypothesis (Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson, 2001), and show that our understanding of the transplantation of European legal and political institutions during the colonial period remains incomplete unless the values and beliefs brought by European settlers are taken into account. It is these cultural beliefs that formed the foundation of the initial institutions that in turn were key for long-term economic development.

2. Alan de Bromhead, doutorando de Oxford, conseguiu dois co-autores de muita moral (Barry Eichengreen e Kevin O'Rourke) e mastiga dados para mostrar que o extremismo de direita cresce em tempos de dificuldades econômicas. Resumo:

We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right-wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s. We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy. What mattered was not simply growth at the time of the election but cumulative growth performance. But the effect of the Depression on support for right-wing anti-system parties was not equally powerful under all economic, political and social circumstances. It was greatest in countries with relatively short histories of democracy, with existing extremist parties, and with electoral systems that created low hurdles to parliamentary representation. Above all, it was greatest where depressed economic conditions were allowed to persist.