sexta-feira, 11 de janeiro de 2013

Algumas cartas históricas de hedge funds

Opiniões que envolvem dinheiro, diz a teoria, valem mais - daí eu achar preferível ler sobre mercados nas palavras de gestores de fundos do que de economistas e estrategistas de bancos e corretoras. As cartas aos investidores do passado são grandes documentos históricos e potenciais fontes de aprendizado: lá estão as decisões sob incerteza, os vieses, as desculpas, a sorte, o azar... Abaixo alguns exemplos que eu coletei ao longo dos últimos anos:

- 2000, perto do topo da bolha de tecnologia (a máxima do índice Nasdaq foi em 10 de março). Dois gestores lendários entregam os pontos, a poucos meses de se provarem corretos:

Em 30 de março, Julian Robertson, da Tiger Funds:

The current technology, Internet and telecom craze, fueled by the performance desires of investors, money managers and even financial buyers, is unwittingly creating a Ponzi pyramid destined for collapse. The tragedy is, however, that the only way to generate short-term performance in the current environment is to buy these stocks. That makes the process self-perpetuating until the pyramid eventually collapses under its own excess.
Consequently, after thorough consideration, I have decided to return all capital to our investors, effectively bringing down the curtain on the Tiger funds. We have already largely liquefied the portfolio and plan to return assets as outlined in the attached plan.

Em 28 de abril, George Soros:

We have come to realize that a large hedge fund like Quantum Fund is no longer the best way to manage money. Markets have become extremely unstable and historical measures of value at risk no longer apply. Quantum Fund is far too big and its activities too closely watched by the market to be able to operate successfully in this environment.

Ambas as cartas completas aqui.

- John Paulson, em fevereiro de 2008, quando o "greatest trade ever" acelerou os ganhos que fariam dele um multibilionário:

Given the current trends in the industry, we believe it is highly likely that the losses in RMBS will severely impair or extinguish the BBB and BBB- tranches we are short. Therefore, while the bonds declined significantly in February, subject to mark to market volatility, we think the bonds will move much lower in the upcoming months. If the subprime origination market ultimately shuts down, which recent events indicate it likely will, then these tranches may collapse as defaults will rise to unprecedented levels as subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgages reset at usurious interest rates (Libor plus 600 bps) with limited sources to refinance.

Carta completa aqui.

- Outubro de 2008, Andrew Lahde, outro que lucrou com o furo da bolha imobiliária nos EUA, encerra as atividades:

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money.
I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths.Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.
I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life – where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and
assets under management – with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.
At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant – marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wifebeating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous.
Carta completa aqui.

- Fevereiro de 2010, os mercados de metais básicos espirram e o Ebulio Commodity Fund pega ebola:

February 2010 was the worst month in the history of the Ebulio Commodity Fund and we regret to report a return of -86.25 pct for the month, which brings our total return for the year to -95.83 pct and to -89.63 pct since inception.
Ebulio Capital Management LLP is also strong and has, as a token of confidence in the future, waived its 2 pct management fee for 2010.

O gran finale é a citação do personagem de Jeff Bridges em Crazy Heart:

"You don't see it coming, until it's gone..."

Carta completa aqui.

- Agosto de 2010, Stanley Druckenmiller anuncia sua aposentadoria:

After much self reflection, I have decided to retire from managing client funds and I wanted to give you prompt notice of my intentions and explain the reasons for this. I have had to recognize that competing in the markets over such a long timeframe imposes heavy personal costs. While the joy of winning for clients is immense, for me the disappointment of each interim drawdown over the years has taken a cumulative toll that I cannot continue to sustain.

Carta completa aqui.

- Setembro de 2011, Bruce Kovner também se aposenta:

I write you this letter to announce that on December 31st of this year, I will retire as Chairman and CEO of Caxton Associates After 34 years in the trading business and  rnore than 28 years leading Caxton, the time has corne to hand the leadership of the  company to a new generation.

Carta completa aqui.

Agradeço a indicação de outras cartas históricas nos comentários.

7 comentários:

Anônimo disse...

Boas cartas

Bertin disse...

Muitas do Luis Stuhlberger valem a pena. Tem uma que ele fala sobre os acertos dele na gestão do fundo verde, vou ver se acho e depois mando o link. Abraços!

Anônimo disse...

Andrew Lahde... meu idolo!!!

OrlandoV disse...

Desconheço a figura de Andrew Lahde, mas citação dele em muito me lembrou a ideia de "fuck you money" do Taleb.

Drunkeynesian disse...

100%! Também não sei que cara ele tem...

Anônimo disse...

Se gostar da historia dos HF leia "MOre money than God" - conta o surgimento e tragetoria de varios deles.
Esperava um pouco mais do livro, mas achei interessante.

Da uma lida nos reviews da Amazon e ve se interessa.


Drunkeynesian disse...

Eu li, achei bem bom - ainda que seja muito concentrado nos EUA.